BC Liberals set to three-peat.
Most of you are aware that the next provincial election date is one year away, on May 12th 2009.However, just a short seven years ago and you wouldn't have known when the next provincial election date was because BC didn't have fixed election dates prior to Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals being elected in 2001.
Today elections can't be called to suit the political whims of the governing party. What a fantastic idea this has been! In fact many other provinces have followed BC's example and legislated their own fixed election dates, including Ontario, Newfoundland, New Brunswick and now Manitoba.
So looking ahead to the May 12th, 2009 BC provincial election, which party is going to win?
Based on the BC Liberal's vision, experience and their leadership, the answer is obvious; the BC Liberals will handily win the 2009 provincial election.
To follow up on my bold prediction, two new polls have come out showing the BC Liberals comfortably in front of the BC NDP, one year away from the provincial election. The Mustel Group poll has the BC Liberals at 49% with the BC NDP at 31% for a 18 point lead. An Ipsos Reid poll has the BC Liberals at 46% with the BC NDP at 34% for a 12 point lead.
Any way you add it up the BC Liberals and Premier Gordon Campbell are heading for a three-peat.
posted by Walter Schultz @ 9:00 AM
4 comments
4 Comments:
If you head back to the first term of the Liberals, they engaged in ill advised tax cuts, time-wise, which blew big holes in their provincial budgets resulting in huge deficits. As a result, the Liberals began cutting back on social services, government services, union contracts, etc., etc. in an attempt to curtail those deficits.
Public opinion turned against the Liberals during their first term and the Liberals went behind in the public opinion polls as a result of public anger. In fact, Mustel had the Liberals behind as much as 12% in July, 2004, ten months before the May, 2005 election.
What saved the Liberals was the economic turnaround during 2004, which has lasted ever since. Nevertheless, that turnaround was too late and public anger resonated in May, 2005 when the NDP went from 2 seats to 34.
This time, that economic turnaround has improved tenfold since then with record low unemployment rates and record provincial surpluses. Moreover, they have moved to the important centre of the political spectrum.
Additionally, Carole James has come across as well... flakey... with positions such as "dumb and dumber" when it comes to twinning the 40-year old Port Mann Bridge.
The NDP is certainly not seen as a government in waiting and the current Liberals don't have the "throw the bums out" stigma that WAC Bennett had in '72 and Vanderzalm/Johnston had in '91.
So yes, barring some unforeseen political earthquake, the Liberals will enjoy a very comfortable majority in '09.
Getting some inspiration from my predictions, eh?
BCT,
Nice post.
Frankly, I can't see a sound reason for changing the government. Yes the province has a few challenges, however why would we take a step backward by voting for the NDP when we are moving forward in this province with the BC Liberals?
I too agree that the BC Liberals will handily win the next election.
However, there is one thing that will prevent any huge gains in the Interior: the carbon tax.
While it's all well and good to encourage people to conserve energy, this tax unfairly targets those of us who live in rural areas with little to no choice in public transportation, and who require larger vehicles (I own a small pick up). While it may be "revenue neutral" for government, it will not be so for individuals who live outside the major urban centres. Somehow, I don't think the drop in income taxes will make up for the increases in transportation and heating costs for those of us who have to drive long distances and have to contend with cold winters.
Off the top of my head, I can think of three seats in the Interior that should rightly belong to the BC Liberals. Because of this carbon tax insanity (which the Socialist Horde strangely oppose), those seats will remain in the possession of the Socialist Horde.
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